Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ERN OK AND NW AR ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN 2 MID LVL RIDGES...ONE
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AND ANOTHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WV
IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS KS/MO. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS...WITH
TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. DEWPOINTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AND THUS HAVE MITIGATED
ANY ISSUES WITH THE HEAT INDEX. POPCORN SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR AND SE OK...AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD BE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT DROPS SOUTH FROM KS...OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER ERN OK AND NW AR ON MONDAY...AND
THUS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RUN AT US LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL
DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS AND WILL BRING MOST LIKELY THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME MCS ACTIVITY AS WELL IN A WEAK NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MID LVL RIDGE
REFORTIFIES SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE...AND SOME LOW POPS WERE INSERTED IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS
A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10
FSM   75  99  75  99 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   71  98  73 100 /  10  20  20  20
BVO   70 100  71 100 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   66  94  68  95 /  10  20  10  20
BYV   68  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  20
MKO   72  97  73  99 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   72  98  73  98 /  20  20  10  10
F10   73  98  74 100 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   72  98  74  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

OKZ049-032000-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
226 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 226 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ALBION...DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALBION.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3464 9495 3454 9504 3463 9515 3468 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 299DEG 3KT 3462 9505

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

OKZ075-032000-
LATIMER OK-
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL LATIMER

AT 228 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DAMON...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...DAMON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3487 9518 3476 9522 3480 9538 3490 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 270DEG 1KT 3483 9529

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

OKZ073-032115-
PITTSBURG OK-
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 348 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
FEATHERSTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FEATHERSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3503 9557 3518 9553 3512 9536 3503 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 129DEG 4KT 3507 9542

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

OKZ073-032145-
PITTSBURG OK-
415 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 416 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
ARROWHEAD STATE PARK...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON AND ARROWHEAD
STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3521 9563 3524 9547 3504 9541 3503 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 180DEG 0KT 3515 9554

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