Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND NOTED OVER PAST
HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
ALIGN ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A LITTLE NORTH DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER ITS PRESENCE DOES WARRANT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. PRE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE ADDED TO ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAJORITY OF CURRENT ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z.

SFC BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...
THOUGH NOT BY MUCH AND THUS THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
DOES APPEAR THAT A MORE EXTENSIVE CAP WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SO THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW IN ANY
ACTIVITY THIS FAR SOUTH...THUS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HOTTER TEMPS DURING THAT TIME. SOME TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS MET LOCALLY.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND PUSH FRONT BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE/WED. INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK MORE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR FOR JUNE...MAYBE EVEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  77  98 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   72  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   76  97  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   74  99  72  99 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   69  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   72  96  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  94  74  95 /  30  10  10  10
F10   74  97  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   75  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 1 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH LOCALIZED RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
THIS DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH A DECREASING RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHICH RAISES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS BEING
THE RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE IF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL
PRODUCE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES AND CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE EXPECTED. THE DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKZ057-062-063-162030-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
304 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...WESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES

AT 304 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF
PENSACOLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHLOETA...CLEORA...KETCHUM...
SPAVINAW...STRANG...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY...DISNEY...SPAVINAW STATE
PARK...CHEROKEE STATE PARK AND DISNEY LITTLE BLUE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3660 9497 3637 9491 3636 9512 3650 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 248DEG 10KT 3646 9509

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             3 W OWASSO              36.27N 95.91W
06/16/2011  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKZ055-056-162115-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
352 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 352 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WANN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WANN AND DEWEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3691 9553 3666 9553 3678 9596 3693 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 284DEG 28KT 3684 9582

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKZ054-055-162130-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
354 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 354 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF OKESA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKESA...BARTLESVILLE...DEWEY AND
OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3689 9581 3668 9582 3671 9619 3689 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 273DEG 22KT 3679 9607

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ001-OKZ063-162130-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
406 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN DELAWARE

AT 406 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE EUCHA
STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAYSVILLE...CHEROKEE CITY AND LAKE
EUCHA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3644 9452 3626 9452 3633 9476 3643 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 278DEG 20KT 3637 9473

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ001-162145-
BENTON AR-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN BENTON

AT 413 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SULPHUR
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SULPHUR SPRINGS AND GRAVETTE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3636 9438 3644 9453 3651 9450 3650 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 291DEG 10KT 3648 9445