Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Tulsa, OK

970 
WWUS54 KTSA 161214
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKC021-161224-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-110616T1245Z/
CHEROKEE OK-
714 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3616 9456 3564 9448 3565 9480 3616 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 271DEG 35KT 3614 9465 3587 9460
          3567 9473

$$

OKC001-161245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-110616T1245Z/
ADAIR OK-
714 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR
ADAIR COUNTY...

AT 711 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALLARD TO MARIETTA TO BUNCH...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
STILWELL...BALLARD...WESTVILLE AND WATTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9456 3564 9448 3565 9480 3616 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 271DEG 35KT 3614 9465 3587 9460
          3567 9473

$$

695 
WWUS54 KTSA 161226
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
726 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKC001-161236-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-110616T1245Z/
ADAIR OK-
726 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ADAIR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL 
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

LAT...LON 3616 9456 3564 9448 3565 9480 3616 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 271DEG 35KT 3614 9450 3587 9446
          3567 9459

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL AFFECT KTUL AND KRVS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MAY AFFECT KXNA AND KFYV BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING SMALL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT IS JUST ENTERING EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

LOOKING TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED AS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH WHICH WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT THAT
WILL BE LYING NEAR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.

BEYOND TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SILENT 10 POPS BUT WITH MUCH TREPIDATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LYING NOT FAR TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AND NEAR DAILY MCS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN ITS VICINITY. IT
IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD MAKE A
BORDER CROSSING AT SOME POINT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TIMEFRAMES. DO NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS A 20 POP IN ANY ONE
PERIOD JUST YET...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION AND
PROGRESSION OF STORM COMPLEXES TO OUR NORTH THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS.

OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AT LEAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO HANG OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ADDED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS MONTH.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER NAM MOS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THE
WARMER ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE MUCH TOO COOL AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL DECAY LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND AROUND 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 100 TO 105
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND GST     DRUMRIGHT               35.99N 96.60W
06/16/2011  E60 MPH          CREEK              OK   STORM CHASER

&&

MEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
646 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE HASKELL           35.75N 95.64W
06/16/2011  M58 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

JBM