Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CNTRL AR...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE INTO SE OK THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH COLD POOL HAS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH STORMS SPREADING BACK NE ACROSS MUCH OF FAR ERN OK/WRN
AR. A FEW SEVERE STORMS BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK THE REST OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SRN KS/NE OK BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE
ENE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS KS...WITH AT LEAST LOW
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ACTIVE WSWLY UPPER FLOW
PERSISTS. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS MAY SETUP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND SAGS S.

CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  86  69  87 /  70  10  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  90  30  20  30
MLC   67  86  71  84 /  70  10  20  30
BVO   65  83  65  88 /  70  20  20  20
FYV   64  82  64  81 /  90  30  20  20
BYV   64  81  64  84 /  90  30  20  20
MKO   65  84  68  84 /  80  10  20  20
MIO   65  84  64  87 /  80  20  20  20
F10   65  84  69  85 /  70  10  20  20
HHW   69  85  70  86 /  80  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
                                ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS.

GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME AREAS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TILL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THE AREA.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN VERY LARGE
HAIL.

STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN FINALLY COMING TO AN END ON THURSDAY. SMALL CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IF STORMS HIT THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ001-010-201715-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 1115 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO 2 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

MUCH OF BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3622 9389 3610 9394 3592 9395 3591 9452
      3650 9446 3651 9439 3651 9387 3639 9387
      3639 9388 3637 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 261DEG 25KT 3649 9436 3596 9443

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ010-019-029-OKZ049-068>070-072-074>076-201645-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE
OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...LE FLORE...NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND LATIMER

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 1119 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF RHEA TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VIAN TO 2
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARDIS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF CRAWFORD...WESTERN SEBASTIAN...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...HASKELL...LE FLORE...
SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE...NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA...SEQUOYAH...LATIMER
AND SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
1145 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3581 9396 3566 9407 3450 9468 3463 9551
      3469 9551 3551 9507 3610 9446 3610 9438
      3590 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 287DEG 38KT 3601 9436 3547 9500
          3464 9541

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SE FAYETTEVILLE         36.06N 94.16W
05/20/2011                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRAMPOLINE LOFTED 120 YARDS AND OTHER SMALL DEBRIS
            CARRIED FROM SE TO NW. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SE FAYETTEVILLE         36.06N 94.16W
05/20/2011                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRAMPOLINE LOFTED 120 YARDS AND OTHER SMALL DEBRIS
            CARRIED FROM SE TO NW. ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ073-202130-
PITTSBURG OK-
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 340 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ASHLAND TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF KIOWA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...BLANCO...ASHLAND...SAVANNA
AND HAYWOOD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3460 9589 3468 9589 3468 9609 3469 9610
      3481 9610 3497 9583 3461 9574 3459 9581
      3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 216DEG 34KT 3471 9603 3440 9602

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
428 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ049-073>075-202200-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
428 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...NORTHERN
     PUSHMATAHA AND LATIMER

AT 428 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BACHE TO SARDIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...ENTERPRISE...WILBURTON...YANUSH...HIGGINS...
DAMON...GOWEN...PANOLA...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...
BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...QUINTON AND SARDIS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3532 9537 3470 9506 3461 9541 3499 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 216DEG 45KT 3499 9561 3468 9538