Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA ARE EXPTD ACROSS E OK/NW AR TODAY. THE
FIRST ROUND THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STORMS FORM OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA ACTIVITY. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER THAT OVER NE OK AND NW AR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE THE SHORT TERM
FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. AT PRESENT...ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA IN SOME FORM LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD SO WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MCS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS A RESULT.

DRY LINE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER WESTERN OK BUT IT REMAINS VERY
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ENOUGH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS. DO HOWEVER EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NW ARKANSAS AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL TO OUR NORTH WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING WITH
US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
APPEAR LIMITED THOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE FLOW BACKING ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH FORECAST AREA
REMAINING IN AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH A
PROBABLE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BY MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND MORE STABLE REGIME BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  66  85  68 / 100  90  10  20
FSM   81  67  85  67 / 100  80  20  20
MLC   80  65  84  70 / 100  80  10  20
BVO   79  65  83  63 / 100  90  20  20
FYV   76  64  80  64 / 100  80  20  20
BYV   77  64  79  64 / 100  90  20  20
MKO   78  65  84  66 / 100  90  10  20
MIO   80  65  83  64 / 100  90  20  20
F10   79  64  84  68 / 100  90  10  20
HHW   82  67  84  69 /  80  80  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MIDDAY.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MIDDAY.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET AS WELL.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE MORNING STORMS...THERE
WILL BE A BETTER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS.
IF STORMS ARE MORE DISCREET...VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TILL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. STORM
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE
REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN FINALLY COMING TO AN END ON
THURSDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN IF STORMS HIT THE SAME AREAS OVER
AND OVER THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ068-070-201130-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 600 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
PORUM...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...PORUM...WARNER...BRAGGS AND
FORT GIBSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3581 9508 3564 9511 3563 9513 3556 9513
      3555 9514 3552 9513 3535 9516 3534 9519
      3535 9534 3581 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 188DEG 42KT 3544 9526

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ072-074-076-201200-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL SEQUOYAH

AT 629 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MILTON...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALLISAW...GANS...MILTON...BOKOSHE
AND COWLINGTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3548 9483 3555 9457 3503 9480 3507 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 193DEG 40KT 3515 9484

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ074-075-201200-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN HASKELL AND CENTRAL LATIMER

AT 632 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DAMON...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...WILBURTON...DAMON AND PANOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3521 9532 3521 9512 3481 9526 3484 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 190DEG 36KT 3492 9530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
657 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ068-069-072-201230-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
657 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR

AT 657 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
MARBLE CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUNCH...CHRISTIE...PROCTOR...MARBLE
CITY...BOX...COOKSON AND ELDON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3600 9491 3597 9468 3549 9479 3552 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 189DEG 37KT 3563 9487

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ058-201230-
OTTAWA OK-
703 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OTTAWA

AT 703 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FAIRLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...FAIRLAND...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3701 9464 3673 9474 3673 9490 3700 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 190DEG 38KT 3681 9481

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

OKZ054>056-060-061-064>067-201245-
CREEK OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA
OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CREEK...WESTERN NOWATA...OKMULGEE...EASTERN
     OSAGE...WESTERN ROGERS...TULSA...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND
     WASHINGTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 712 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HULAH TO TULSA TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...
CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...OOLOGAH...TALALA...OKEMAH...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
HENRYETTA...BEGGS...HECTORVILLE...HULAH...LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...
OWASSO...GLENPOOL...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE...BROKEN ARROW...
BARTLESVILLE...VERA...RAMONA...OCHELATA...DEWEY...COPAN...
STONEBLUFF...ONETA...SLICK...MOUNDS...KIEFER AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9576 3620 9558 3586 9573 3585 9576
      3537 9594 3537 9598 3533 9598 3529 9644
      3546 9646 3613 9606 3701 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 226DEG 27KT 3698 9616 3620 9598
          3531 9650