Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tulsa, OK

575 
WWUS54 KTSA 142135
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKC113-117-142215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110414T2215Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
435 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
PAWNEE AND CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BLACKBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WYNONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PERSONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD PREPARE FOR
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER
IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 9649 3652 9622 3633 9661 3641 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 241DEG 39KT 3648 9649

$$

362 
WWUS54 KTSA 142145 RRA
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKC117-142155-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110414T2215Z/
PAWNEE OK-
445 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PAWNEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3638 9652 3647 9655 3662 9635 3652 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 250DEG 35KT 3649 9639

$$

OKC113-142215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110414T2215Z/
OSAGE OK-
445 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 443 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WYNONA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DAMAGING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WYNONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PERSONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD PREPARE FOR
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER
IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 9652 3647 9655 3662 9635 3652 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 250DEG 35KT 3649 9639

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL
KS...WITH SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35. CAP
STRENGTH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AHEAD OF DRYLINE...AND HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PONCA CITY TO
STILLWATER SWD TO ARDMORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE PUSHES
SLOWLY E...AND 100+ KT WLY UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHES ACROSS NRN TX.
PRESENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...WELL INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN
AR...WHERE STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SEE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...EFFECTIVELY ACCELERATING THE BOUNDARY EWD
INTO WRN AR. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER 3-4 AM AS
COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.

COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH 15-25 MPH WLY/NWLY SFC
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW
AR. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES
E AND SLY FLOW RETURNS.

UNSETTLED WLY/SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ECMWF/GFS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DRIVING AN UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
UPPED POPS SOME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. VERY WARM PRE-FRONTAL
WEATHER LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO THE 70S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  58  38  69 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   52  63  39  68 /  80  20  10  10
MLC   50  63  37  71 /  70  10  10   0
BVO   47  56  37  69 /  70  40  10  10
FYV   50  57  37  62 /  90  40  20  10
BYV   51  56  37  61 /  90  50  20  10
MKO   51  59  38  69 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   47  56  37  65 /  90  50  20  10
F10   49  60  38  70 /  70  20  10   0
HHW   52  70  41  73 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1153 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...TORNADO THREAT HIGHEST WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE 60 TO 65
DEGREE DEW POINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 BY EARLY EVENING AND TO HIGHWAY 75 BY MID EVENING.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
PERHAPS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN ACROSS POINTS SOUTH...WITH A SQUALL
LINE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE WINDOW FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER THE SQUALL LINE FORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY
MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
WILL BE THREATS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TIMING OF THE DRYLINE SUGGESTS FIRE DANGER BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
         HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
          HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST PERIODIC HIGH FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKZ054-059-142045-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
312 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 312 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NOBLE
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3654 9699 3654 9696 3656 9690 3660 9691
      3658 9699 3659 9703 3670 9696 3670 9694
      3675 9690 3665 9669 3633 9695 3634 9702
      3651 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 211DEG 41KT 3642 9702