Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Tulsa, OK

004 
WWUS54 KTSA 212351
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

OKC127-220002-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0428.000000T0000Z-110622T0000Z/
PUSHMATAHA OK-
651 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 700 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3420 9521 3430 9522 3434 9504 3425 9504
      3424 9506 3424 9514 3419 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 271DEG 14KT 3425 9502

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR
THIS AFTERNOON...AS NOTED BY CU FIELD AND SURFACE DEW POINT
DIFFERENCES. WILL PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR
TONIGHT AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE MUCH LOWER DEW
POINT AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE FILTERED OVER THE AREA ON
BREEZY...BUT DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH...ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH TIME...SO THIS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED OVERNIGHT MCS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO NE OK AND NW AR AT
THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE
TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY MARK A RETURN TO HOT
WEATHER AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE
AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  20
FSM   65  95  69  94 /  30  10   0  20
MLC   66  95  69  94 /  20  10  10  20
BVO   59  92  63  93 /  10  10   0  30
FYV   59  88  61  88 /  20  10   0  20
BYV   61  88  62  89 /  20  10   0  20
MKO   64  92  68  92 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   62  89  61  92 /  10  10   0  20
F10   65  94  69  93 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   67  94  70  94 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
440 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM JUST TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AND TRAILS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
DURANT OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IF A STORM CAN ACQUIRE
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER
WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER FLOODING ISSUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AS COMPLEXES FORM
TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HEAT INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     TSTM WND GST     BLUEJACKET              36.80N 95.07W
06/21/2011  E65 MPH          CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 65 MPH WITH 6 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER
            TREE LIMBS BROKEN/DOWNED. 1 POWER POLE BROKEN AND 1 HOME
            STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

JDS