Severe Thunderstorm Warning 417, NWS Tulsa, OK

284 
WWUS54 KTSA 210125
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

OKC113-117-210245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-110621T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
825 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 823 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF GRAINOLA TO 13 MILES WEST OF APPERSON
TO 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
GRAINOLA...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...BURBANK...SHIDLER AND FORAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9637 3636 9688 3638 9704 3651 9704
      3657 9690 3659 9691 3658 9700 3659 9706
      3668 9707 3670 9705 3669 9694 3675 9689
      3675 9683 3679 9676 3700 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 252DEG 21KT 3694 9675 3674 9699
          3646 9721

$$

132 
WWUS54 KTSA 210141
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

OKC113-117-210245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-110621T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
841 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 837 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GRAINOLA TO APPERSON TO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...SHIDLER...BURBANK AND FORAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9637 3636 9688 3638 9704 3651 9704
      3657 9690 3659 9691 3658 9700 3659 9706
      3668 9707 3670 9705 3669 9694 3675 9689
      3675 9683 3679 9676 3700 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 252DEG 21KT 3697 9664 3670 9681
          3649 9710

$$

234 
WWUS54 KTSA 210204
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
904 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

OKC113-117-210245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-110621T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
904 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 901 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF FORAKER TO APPERSON TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FORAKER...
SHIDLER AND BURBANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9637 3636 9688 3638 9704 3651 9704
      3657 9690 3659 9691 3658 9700 3659 9706
      3668 9707 3670 9705 3669 9694 3675 9689
      3675 9683 3679 9676 3700 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 245DEG 33KT 3697 9649 3673 9678
          3653 9698

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC FRONT IS SLOWLY OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING BASICALLY IN A
CONTINUOUS LINE THAT IS BUILDING SOUTH WITH TIME. GIVEN THE BETTER
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
OK...I HAVE INCREASED THE EVENING POPS INTO THE 60-80% RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NEEDED AS THE EVENING CONTINUES.
A WIND GUST TO 63 KTS WAS RECORDED AT MID CONTINENT AIRPORT WITH
THE LINE...SO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SPIN UP
TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID JUNE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL SUPPLY AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE SYSTEM
COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. 18Z KOUN SOUNDING SHOWED LIMITED COOLING YET
TO OCCUR AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL...AND THE LATEST RUC FORECAST
MAINTAINS THIS WARM LAYER WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION.
RESULTANT IMPACT IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH THE
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THAT SAID...THE
CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS HIGH GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS WIND PROFILES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND
ANTICIPATED STORM MOTIONS FAVOR CELLS QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO BROKEN
LINE SEGMENTS...AND DEEP SUB CLOUD LAYERS WILL FAVOR INTENSE
DOWNBURST WINDS. NUMEROUS LOCAL WRF RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW
THE POTENTIAL INTENSE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE EVENING STORMS.

AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. AN EVOLUTION
INTO A LARGER MCS IS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS EXPANDING QUICKLY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS...THOUGH THE MCS
OUTFLOW WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SHOVE THE STORM COVERAGE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST SHOT OF A DRY DAY FOR
ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEWPOINTS.

THE TEMPERATURES TRENDS FROM RECENT FORECAST WERE LARGELY RETAINED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE BENEATH SOME DEGREE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL FAVOR REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY
LIKELY IN VICINITY. NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO THESE MCS TRACKS THUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  90  66  91 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   71  88  69  90 /  70  40  40  10
MLC   70  88  67  91 /  70  20  20  10
BVO   67  89  63  90 /  70  10  10  10
FYV   68  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  10
BYV   68  85  64  86 /  70  30  30  10
MKO   70  88  66  90 /  70  20  20  10
MIO   67  87  64  87 /  70  10  10  10
F10   70  89  66  90 /  60  20  20  10
HHW   71  89  70  90 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
740 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
740 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY THIS EVENING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LATE TONIGHT
                FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.
                                SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
                                AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONGER THAN NORMAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER MORE DISCREET CELLS
AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DISCREET CELLS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DISCREET CELLS...AND LATER ON TONIGHT
WITH THE LINE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL RISK OF TORNADOES ALONG THE SQUALL LINE IF IT CAN REMAIN
INTENSE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED LATE NIGHT
STORM COMPLEX...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOW MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF COMPLEXES MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
722 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TORNADO          7 NNW BIGHEART          36.95N 96.27W
06/18/2011                   OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIVE VIDEO OF BRIEF TORNADO WAS BROADCASTED BY KJRH

&&

EJC