Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. NORTHERN CLUSTER WAS AROUND I-80 WITH THE NEXT ONE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND PROFILERS SHOW WAVES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UPSTREAM ACROSS WYOMING AND UTAH ADDITIONAL
WAVES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
GOOD 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 90S TO THE
SOUTH OF I-70. EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AS THE WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS...CHANCES LOOK BEST DURING THE EVENING THEN TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE MOVES EAST AND FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKING DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
MOISTURE NOT FAR AWAY SHOULD SEE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SWEEPING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS STILL POINTING TO A DRY WEEKEND FOR THE
CWA.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
AND HAVE CONVECTION IN UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN THE 20Z TO 23Z PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SOME MVFR VSBYS
AND ISOLD IFR VSBYS LIKLEY WITH THE CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-090930-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
424 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
HAZARDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JUNCTION CITY           39.03N 96.83W
08/08/2011  M2.65 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1257 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     TSTM WND GST     COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT   38.30N 95.73W
08/08/2011  M62 MPH          COFFEY             KS   AWOS

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
105 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW BETO JUNCTION     38.36N 95.76W
08/08/2011  E60.00 MPH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
118 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ESKRIDGE            38.86N 96.18W
08/08/2011                   WABAUNSEE          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS K-99 NEAR LAKE WABAUNSEE

&&

JL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
139 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

KSZ008-080715-
REPUBLIC-
139 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE REPUBLIC AND SCANDIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 9793 3999 9793 3998 9768 3973 9768
      3974 9794 3990 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 276DEG 19KT 3987 9789

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

KSZ008-020-081000-
CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
424 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN CLOUD
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 500 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE COURTLAND...SCANDIA...NORWAY...BELLEVILLE...
MUNDEN...NARKA...CUBA...AGENDA AND CLYDE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3954 9737 3964 9794 4001 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 286DEG 46KT 4017 9782 3991 9792
          3975 9809