Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
100 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF EMP.
THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES AND THAT WOULD PUT AN END TO THE
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STORMS BACK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS ARE MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN PRETTY WORKED
OVER AS NOTED BY THE TEMPS STILL AROUND 80 DEGREES. HOWEVER LOOKING
FURTHER UPSTREAM THERE IS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SD
AND 20Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
STILL SHOWING AN MCV DEVELOPING FROM THIS CONVECTION AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY
POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
THINKING A MCS COULD ROLL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A DECENT
SFC RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SETTLES IN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING RETURN FLOW BACK INTO
NORTHEAST KS...KEEPING THE NOSE OF THE 850 JET MORE ACROSS WESTERN
KS. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
SOMEWHAT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER TO MOVE THIS RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SLOWER WITH
BRINGING RETURN FLOW BACK OVER THE RIDGE. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED
POPS FROM SATURDAY AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY.

TEMPS COULD BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONTS. DUE TO CONVECTION TODAY DID
NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO DIVE INTO THE SPECIFICS OF THE COLD FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS ERRORED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AM CONFIDENT THOUGH WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP THAT THE HEAT WAVE IS UNLIKELY TO RETURN. IN FACT FLOODING
MAY BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS.
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF
TONIGHTS MCS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
07Z. ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BY 09Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
CONVECTION THEN SETTLE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OR POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 N MOONLIGHT           39.10N 97.11W
08/08/2011  M1.20 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JUNCTION CITY           39.03N 96.83W
08/08/2011  M2.65 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1257 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     TSTM WND GST     COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT   38.30N 95.73W
08/08/2011  M62 MPH          COFFEY             KS   AWOS

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
105 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW BETO JUNCTION     38.36N 95.76W
08/08/2011  E60.00 MPH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
118 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ESKRIDGE            38.86N 96.18W
08/08/2011                   WABAUNSEE          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS K-99 NEAR LAKE WABAUNSEE

&&

JL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
139 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

KSZ008-080715-
REPUBLIC-
139 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE REPUBLIC AND SCANDIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 9793 3999 9793 3998 9768 3973 9768
      3974 9794 3990 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 276DEG 19KT 3987 9789