Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION.

PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO
INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. VERY LITTLE UPPER FLOW HAS LIMITED STORMS
ABILITY TO ORGANIZE SO EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE THREAT
DIMINISHES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS THE ARE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR. KWH

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER MID AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AS WE REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. BEST
CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT IN NC KS AND SAT
NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS MCS COULD DEVELOP
OVER NEBRASKA EACH NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REMNANTS
AFFECTING NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THAT FAR OUT FOR EASTERN KS AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMERLIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. 60

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MHK AND WILL EFFECT TOP
AND FOE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNSET WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

ANDERSON

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
357 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.  HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GOLFBALL OR LARGER SIZE
HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
409 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               39.71N 96.42W
06/01/2011  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PHILLIPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSAGE CITY        38.66N 95.84W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSAGE CITY        38.66N 95.84W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             4 SSE SCRANTON          38.72N 95.72W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ055-012215-
OSAGE-
440 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

THROUGH 515 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OVERBROOK.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9551 3863 9560 3873 9579 3887 9567
      3887 9557 3887 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 231DEG 19KT 3874 9565