Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
GREAT BEND THROUGH PARSONS KANSAS AND WAS STEADILY LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT. A RATHER SHARP DRY LINE WAS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE FROM NEAR HAYS KANSAS TO GAGE OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE TROUGH WOULD INDUCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL KANSAS PRIOR TO 21Z. THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WAS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WERE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE...AND WHILE THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE...THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF A BELLEVILLE TO COUNCIL
GROVE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THOSE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRY LINE AND MOVING NORTHEAST TO INTERACT WITH THE SHALLOW
WARM FRONT.

THE INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALSO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO QUICKLY WANE AFTER MID EVENING
BUT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING ISSUES
APPEAR TO BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS WELL GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER MORNING CONVECTION...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO SURGE A BIT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH 35 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT ONCE AGAIN FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ONCE AGAIN WITH AN ENHANCED FLOODING
POTENTIAL GIVEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

BARJENBRUCH

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AS MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON
SATURDAY MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. A
BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY MORNING
JUST BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS AND EC SHOW A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. BOTH AGREE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEAD TO
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON MONDAY AND BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA BUT DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC WANTS TO PUSH
THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT BRINGS RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
BACK QUICKLY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE EC ALSO BRINGS AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH
THE EC IN THE FORECAST DUE TO ACTIVE PATTERN THAT THE CWA IS IN.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT TSRA. COULD BE
A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI MORNING BUT CONTINUED MVFR EXPECTED.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA LATE FRI AFTN AND EVENING EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
940 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
940 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. WHILE DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREATS...THERE WILL BE A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 9 PM NEAR AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR BELLEVILLE...TO CLAY CENTER TO COUNCIL GROVE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N MILTONVALE          39.41N 97.45W
05/19/2011                   CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
911 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             4 WSW CLYDE             39.57N 97.47W
05/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       CLOUD              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
05/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1000 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ009-200315-
WASHINGTON-
1000 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY...

THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
HOLLENBURG.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9697 3997 9698 3981 9707 3986 9729
      4001 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 197DEG 30KT 3992 9714

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSZ020-200545-
CLOUD-
1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLOUD COUNTY...

THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CLOUD COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
JAMESTOWN AND CONCORDIA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 9794 3965 9756 3959 9749 3930 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 227DEG 30KT 3944 9792

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSZ020-034-200630-
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OTTAWA AND WESTERN CLOUD
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 130 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OTTAWA AND WESTERN
CLOUD COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
ADA...MINNEAPOLIS...GLASCO AND DELPHOS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 9794 3961 9779 3949 9754 3918 9749
      3900 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 229DEG 41KT 3934 9810 3906 9793