Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Topeka, KS

111 
WWUS53 KTOP 212257
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSC085-087-139-177-197-212315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110521T2315Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-JEFFERSON-JACKSON-WABAUNSEE-
557 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...WESTERN
JEFFERSON...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF TOPEKA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

AT 553 PM CDT...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS 
NEAR DOVER. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
HAIL UP TO SIZE OF BASEBALLS. SEEK SHELTER NOW!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN TOPEKA...TECUMSEH...BILLARD AIRPORT...GRANTVILLE...PERRY
LAKE...OZAWKIE...OSKALOOSA...MERIDEN...MAYETTA...HOYT AND DENISON.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 165 AND 188.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 341 AND 355.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9550 3903 9550 3888 9559 3887 9562
      3885 9597 3891 9606 3908 9605 3921 9597
      3944 9569 3933 9547 3920 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 223DEG 36KT 3903 9577
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.75IN

$$

ANGLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY
LINE WEST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR SMITH
CENTER TO HAYS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODIFIED 12Z KTOP SOUNDING FOR THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION SUPPORTS CAPE NEAR 2200 J/KG WITH CIN NEAR -5
J/KG. A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED NEAR 30-40KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
VEERING. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
NORTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST 850MB FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAMES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM
AND EC FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAN THE
GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AND EC DUE THE NORTHERLY LOW TRACT
BEING MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOMETIME EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK DRY.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AT MHK/TOP/FOE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBILITIES NEAR
2-3SM ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ010-023-212230-
MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 530 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BLAINE...
WHEATON...LILLIS...FRANKFORT AND VERMILLION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9623 3934 9655 3946 9671 3946 9669
      3948 9668 3948 9667 3954 9663 3954 9659
      3956 9658 3957 9663 3983 9640 3984 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 223DEG 39KT 3947 9655

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             CORNING                 39.66N 96.03W
05/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WIBW TV

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             2 W CORNING             39.66N 96.06W
05/21/2011  E1.25 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             ESKRIDGE                38.86N 96.11W
05/21/2011  E2.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             1 S ESKRIDGE            38.84N 96.11W
05/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             5 N DOVER               39.04N 95.94W
05/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT I-70 AND SW CARLSON
            RD.

&&

ANDERSON