Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Topeka, KS

608 
WWUS53 KTOP 212218
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
518 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSC111-212228-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110521T2245Z/
LYON-
518 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9594 3874 9594 3874 9630 3921 9597
      3921 9560 3888 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 222DEG 43KT 3885 9601

$$

KSC139-177-197-212245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110521T2245Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-WABAUNSEE-
518 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ESKRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEENE...DOVER...AUBURN...MAPLE HILL...WILLARD...ROSSVILLE...
PAULINE...FORBES FIELD...BERRYTON...SILVER LAKE...NORTHWESTERN TOPEKA
AND BILLARD AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 183.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 339 AND 355.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9594 3874 9594 3874 9630 3921 9597
      3921 9560 3888 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 222DEG 43KT 3885 9601
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

ANGLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY
LINE WEST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR SMITH
CENTER TO HAYS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODIFIED 12Z KTOP SOUNDING FOR THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION SUPPORTS CAPE NEAR 2200 J/KG WITH CIN NEAR -5
J/KG. A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED NEAR 30-40KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
VEERING. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
NORTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST 850MB FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAMES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM
AND EC FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAN THE
GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AND EC DUE THE NORTHERLY LOW TRACT
BEING MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOMETIME EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK DRY.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AT MHK/TOP/FOE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBILITIES NEAR
2-3SM ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
456 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ038-039-212245-
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
456 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SHAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 545 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
KEENE...DOVER...AUBURN...MAPLE HILL...WILLARD...ROSSVILLE...
PAULINE...SILVER LAKE...FORBES FIELD AND WEST CENTRAL TOPEKA.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 341 AND 355 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9582 3887 9594 3880 9595 3874 9606
      3874 9612 3885 9625 3921 9592 3896 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 226DEG 38KT 3886 9608

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ011-012-024-212245-
BROWN-JACKSON-NEMAHA-
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 545 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
GOFF...WETMORE...NETAWAKA...WOODLAWN...KICKAPOO RESERVATION...
POWHATTAN...FAIRVIEW...SABETHA...WILLIS AND MORRILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 9541 3947 9595 3952 9603 3957 9604
      3957 9610 3958 9612 4000 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 224DEG 35KT 3958 9595

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ010-023-212230-
MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 530 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BLAINE...
WHEATON...LILLIS...FRANKFORT AND VERMILLION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9623 3934 9655 3946 9671 3946 9669
      3948 9668 3948 9667 3954 9663 3954 9659
      3956 9658 3957 9663 3983 9640 3984 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 223DEG 39KT 3947 9655

ANGLE