Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Topeka, KS

578 
WWUS53 KTOP 180612
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
112 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSC003-045-059-180622-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-110618T0615Z/
ANDERSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
112 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND EASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115
AM CDT...

AT 112 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM CDT. STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 200 AM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3803 9521 3880 9532 3884 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 259DEG 41KT 3874 9488 3858 9474
          3842 9481

$$

ANGLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL CARRY A STRONG VARIABLE WIND GROUP FOR TOP/FOE AS SEVERE
STORMS TO THE SOUTH PRODUCE OUTFLOW TOWARD THE TERMINALS. STORMS
MAY FIRE ALONG THIS OUTFLOW THROUGH 09Z AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL AS WELL. CB CHANCES RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS CB
GROUP. KEPT VC AND CB AT MHK WITH STORMS TO THE EAST AND MONITOR
FOR NECESSARY UPDATES. 67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011/

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...WITH
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS IN THE EAST PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN
WHILE COOL FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST
CWA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY BEHIND THE MCS TODAY HAVE LIKELY BEEN TRIMMED
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE TRYING TO RETURN
NORTHWESTWARD...WOULD STILL EXPECT TO SEE MLCAPES IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES AWAY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THAT COULD
DEVELOP EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE MCS.
ALL IN ALL...WILL KEEP THE LOWEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
STEADILY INCREASE POPS AND QPF EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/TEMPS REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA...WILL CARRY LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FAR NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.   63

THE SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LARGELY IMPACTED BY EVENTS OF
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF LARGE OR REPEATED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES TRAVERSE KANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD BE DISPLACED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA...EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST. WITH DECENT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
LIKELY WITH LITTLE CAPPING BY LATE DAY AND AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS
OF BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
IN THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERN AREAS ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO
SEE STORMS FOR ANY PART OF THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST WHERE
ANY OUTFLOWS END UP IS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON MENTION FOR
ALL LOCATIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE SMALL MORNING CHANCES IN THE EAST WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE
EXITING AROUND SUNRISE.

65

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS 00Z SUNDAY. 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THOUGH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THUS STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WELL AS SOME
BECOMING SEVERE.

SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ALSO EML WORKS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY CAPPING OFF
ANY CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL EJECT OUT ANOTHER WAVE
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE
MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE NOSE OF THE 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE EVENING. CAP IS FORECAST
TO ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. PREFER THE ECMWF
PLACEMENT.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT OF THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. RIDGING OCCURS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT
RETURNING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY IN LOW
LEVEL JET THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE 850MB-300MB FLOW.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH 3 AM CDT FRIDAY. HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ056-180445-
FRANKLIN-
1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CENTROPOLIS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 9531 3861 9551 3874 9550 3874 9536
      3874 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 269DEG 12KT 3868 9540

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW EMPORIA            38.34N 96.26W
06/17/2011  E70 MPH          LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOTORIST ON THE KANSAS TURNPIKE REPORTED 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

JL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ009-010-022-023-180530-
MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-WASHINGTON-
1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF RILEY...MARSHALL AND POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 9663 3950 9645 3943 9690 3959 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 248DEG 12KT 3952 9675

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     S EMPORIA               38.40N 96.18W
06/17/2011  E60 MPH          LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S LEBO                38.34N 95.85W
06/18/2011  M73 MPH          COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E LEBO                38.08N 95.60W
06/18/2011  M65.00 MPH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB