Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Topeka, KS

885 
WWUS53 KTOP 180235
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSC041-127-180245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-110618T0245Z/
MORRIS-DICKINSON-
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HERINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURDICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3861 9694 3860 9704 3861 9712
      3874 9696 3873 9683 3852 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 284DEG 6KT 3863 9694
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$


BLAIR

904 
WWUS53 KTOP 180241
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
941 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSC041-127-180250-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-110618T0245Z/
MORRIS-DICKINSON-
941 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...

AT 940 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS 
WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3861 9694 3860 9704 3861 9712
      3874 9696 3873 9683 3852 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 284DEG 6KT 3863 9693

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...WITH
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS IN THE EAST PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN
WHILE COOL FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST
CWA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY BEHIND THE MCS TODAY HAVE LIKELY BEEN TRIMMED
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE TRYING TO RETURN
NORTHWESTWARD...WOULD STILL EXPECT TO SEE MLCAPES IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES AWAY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THAT COULD
DEVELOP EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE MCS.
ALL IN ALL...WILL KEEP THE LOWEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
STEADILY INCREASE POPS AND QPF EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/TEMPS REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA...WILL CARRY LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FAR NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.   63

THE SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LARGELY IMPACTED BY EVENTS OF
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF LARGE OR REPEATED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES TRAVERSE KANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD BE DISPLACED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA...EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST. WITH DECENT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
LIKELY WITH LITTLE CAPPING BY LATE DAY AND AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS
OF BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
IN THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERN AREAS ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO
SEE STORMS FOR ANY PART OF THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST WHERE
ANY OUTFLOWS END UP IS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON MENTION FOR
ALL LOCATIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE SMALL MORNING CHANCES IN THE EAST WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE
EXITING AROUND SUNRISE.

65

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS 00Z SUNDAY. 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THOUGH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THUS STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WELL AS SOME
BECOMING SEVERE.

SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ALSO EML WORKS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY CAPPING OFF
ANY CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL EJECT OUT ANOTHER WAVE
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE
MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE NOSE OF THE 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE EVENING. CAP IS FORECAST
TO ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. PREFER THE ECMWF
PLACEMENT.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT OF THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. RIDGING OCCURS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT
RETURNING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY IN LOW
LEVEL JET THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE 850MB-300MB FLOW.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

A CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...A WEAK
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL...FORCING REMAINS WEAK FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CB. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE AMENDMENTS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH 3 AM CDT FRIDAY. HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
843 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             3 NW HOPE               38.72N 97.12W
06/17/2011  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             4 N HOPE                38.75N 97.08W
06/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HAIL             S HOPE                  38.69N 97.08W
06/17/2011  E2.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             HOPE                    38.69N 97.08W
06/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB