Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

688 
WWUS52 KTBW 182047
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
447 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FLC015-071-182115-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-111018T2115Z/
LEE FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
447 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND WESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE CORAL...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 143 AND 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY 
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2645 8196 2647 8198 2647 8201 2645 8200
      2641 8207 2643 8213 2650 8220 2662 8224
      2667 8227 2668 8227 2696 8190 2694 8179
      2690 8175 2662 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 224DEG 31KT 2667 8204

$$

108 
WWUS52 KTBW 182103
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FLC015-071-182113-
/O.CAN.KTBW.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-111018T2115Z/
LEE FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
503 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND WESTERN
LEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS IT WILL CONTINUE 
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BEFORE MOVING OUT OF 
THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2645 8196 2647 8198 2647 8201 2645 8200
      2641 8207 2643 8213 2650 8220 2662 8224
      2667 8227 2668 8227 2696 8190 2694 8179
      2690 8175 2662 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 224DEG 31KT 2677 8193

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF LOOKS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED POPS IN GRIDS TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD AND ALSO TRENDED TEMPERATURES LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE RAIN IS CONTINUING TO FALL. FOR TONIGHT HAVE GONE WITH
70 TO 80 POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THEN LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY POP UP AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY AND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN MUCH COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONTINUING TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A GENERAL N/NE WIND
FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THEN ON MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON TSRA WITH SOME TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH LATER TODAY AND THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES BY AND
THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER ROUGH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO MAY NEED TO REISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE HELPING TO PUSH THE HIGH SURF
TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS...BUT WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  78  60  74 /  70  20   5   5
FMY  75  82  63  78 /  80  30   5   5
GIF  73  79  57  75 /  70  20   5   5
SRQ  75  79  61  75 /  70  20   5   5
BKV  71  77  51  73 /  60  20   5   5
SPG  76  79  64  74 /  70  20   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...09/RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-182100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
453 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY
ON THE PEACE...LITTLE MANATEE...MANATEE...AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS
WELL AS HORSE CREEK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PILE WATER UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO GENERATE STRONG
RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA BEACHES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 6 TO 10 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

OGLESBY