Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH. FIRST...A BOWING LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE TAMPA BAY AREA
BEFORE EVENING. THE TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM.

THE SECOND ROUND WILL COME WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE
LINE WILL BE NEAR LEVY COUNTY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN IN THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BY MID DAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THEN A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND HUMID FLOW RETURNING.
THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO TPA...PIE AND SRQ
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR
SHORE AND BAY WATERS THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE HEATING OF
THE LAND MASS IS BRINGING STRONGER WINDS DOWN ALONG THE COAST...
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS COMMON AT MANY REPORTING
STATIONS SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BOWING LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE GULF TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY A LULL TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES NEAR 35 PERCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  78  63  79 /  40  80  20   0
FMY  70  85  65  83 /  10  50  40   0
GIF  66  83  61  81 /  40  80  20   0
SRQ  69  79  64  80 /  20  80  20   0
BKV  66  79  58  79 /  50  90  10   0
SPG  70  78  65  79 /  40  80  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CLOSE
AVIATION...NOAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-302130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
530 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING  A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE