Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST AND SKIES IN IT'S WAKE HAVE BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SE AL AND
WAS ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MACON SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DESTIN AT 18Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MAINLY ABOVE 700MB MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF ANOTHER
LOW OVER ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. THE VORT MAX LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO WILL GO WITH LOWER CHANCE
POPS MOST ZONES FOR NOW. AS THIS LOW LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT IT BEGINS TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT UPPER LOW STILL
SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS
PERIOD WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...ONE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT'S EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS THAT THE SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY FCST TO LIFT OFF TO OUR NE ON
MONDAY IS NOW PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE ENHANCED BY
YET ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
THIRD VORT LOBE WILL HELP GENERATE YET ANOTHER CLOSED OFF COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION JUST TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR GOOD ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THIS FINAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO FOR A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE (AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW) IT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE LOWER
80S RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
UNDER THE COLD POOL ON TUESDAY...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A STEADY WARMING
TREND...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROF IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EVENTUALLY REACH THE
90 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AFTER THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY ELEVATE TO
CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONTUSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN BRISK MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE 4-5 DEGREES LOWER
THAN TODAY...THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
ERC VALUES ABOVE 34. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE MET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   60 81 56 78 50/ 10  0 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY   62 80 59 77 52/  0  0 0 30 10
DOTHAN        57 80 54 72 48/  0  0 0 30 10
ALBANY        58 79 54 75 47/ 10  0 0 30 10
VALDOSTA      59 80 54 77 49/ 20  0 0 30 10
CROSS CITY    63 82 57 80 51/ 30  0 0 20 10
APALACHICOLA  63 80 58 78 52/ 20  0 0 20 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...
     INLAND JEFFERSON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
LONG TERM...GOULD
REST OF DISCUSSION...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150730-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011 /220 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST WINDS. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...SOME
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A DANGER AS WELL. HOWEVER
WE CANNOT DISCOUNT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FROM WEST OT
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND THEN END OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE PANHANDLE
BEACHES.

MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTER THE FRONT EXITS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...GIVING US A RETURN TO FAIR
BUT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ155-156-141945-
DECATUR GA-SEMINOLE GA-
306 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

AT 302 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES EAST OF MARIANNA...OR NEAR SEMINOLE STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN SEMINOLE AND SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3070 8453 3071 8487 3074 8489 3075 8491
      3082 8494 3084 8493 3084 8492 3086 8494
      3087 8492 3092 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 268DEG 18KT 3078 8483

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ143>145-156-141945-
MITCHELL GA-MILLER GA-BAKER GA-DECATUR GA-
313 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
BAKER...NORTHERN DECATUR...SOUTHEAST MILLER AND SOUTHWEST MITCHELL
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

AT 308 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 38 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARIANNA...OR NEAR ELDORENDO...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN DECATUR...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...SOUTHERN BAKER AND
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3124 8445 3101 8439 3094 8474 3100 8476
      3104 8476 3106 8473 3107 8478 3111 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 250DEG 21KT 3106 8466

42-DVD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ016-GAZ156-157-142030-
GRADY GA-DECATUR GA-GADSDEN FL-
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR...GADSDEN AND
GRADY COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 342 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TALLAHASSEE TO 28 MILES EAST OF MARIANNA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FOWLSTOWN TO OAK GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN GADSDEN...SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR AND SOUTHWESTERN
GRADY COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3073 8419 3068 8426 3069 8429 3067 8431
      3066 8430 3054 8446 3064 8488 3083 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 283DEG 19KT 3077 8450 3068 8476

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ017-142100-
LEON FL-
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LEON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

AT 405 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
TALLAHASSEE TO 15 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LAKE IAMONIA TO MIDWAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LEON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3052 8404 3046 8404 3043 8408 3030 8408
      3039 8450 3046 8446 3048 8440 3051 8441
      3057 8438 3064 8430 3067 8431 3069 8429
      3068 8415 3064 8401 3053 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 290DEG 27KT 3062 8424 3048 8449

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ018-GAZ158-159-142100-
THOMAS GA-BROOKS GA-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
BROOKS...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEAST THOMAS COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

AT 410 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 28 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISON...OR NEAR ALMA...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHERN
BROOKS COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3065 8351 3065 8361 3063 8361 3057 8385
      3071 8394 3086 8350 3077 8346 3075 8349
      3070 8345 3069 8343 3067 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 255DEG 22KT 3065 8380

42-DVD