Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE 23 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RATHER NOISY PATTERN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAD
DISTORTED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE WAS A MESO HIGH OVER
SOUTHEAST AL AND A BOUNDARY ON ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR FUTURE STORMS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MS-AR STATE LINE
THROUGH LA AND OFF THE TX COAST. THIS FRONT WILL NEED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA (SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY) BEFORE THE RAIN
CHANCES END. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES NWP...WE
THINK THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST FL AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS (FROM WEST TO EAST) OVERNIGHT. LARGE SCALE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...AS RECENT VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS SHOWED
0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 25 TO 30 KT. A PULSE
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OR WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION OVER SE ALABAMA AND SRN GEORGIA WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BIG BEND. MVFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR CIGS COMMON OVER THE WRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(KABY...KDHN...KTLH...AND KECP) SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(KABY...KTLH...AND KVLD) IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
REGIONWIDE TOMORROW WITH IFR TO LIFR LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HARRIGAN
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150200-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
946 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011 /846 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS...A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH STRONG TO
SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL UP QUARTER SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL POSE A
DANGER AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ065-066-132100-
COFFEE AL-DALE AL-
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE AND DALE
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

AT 329 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3154 8619 3154 8615 3162 8614 3162 8546
      3121 8572 3127 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 225DEG 22KT 3138 8577

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
656 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

FLZ008-010-108-132330-
WASHINGTON FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-SOUTH WALTON FL-
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

AT 553 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM  NEAR FREEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...WHICH COULD CAUSE
A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES TO COME DOWN.

LAT...LON 3066 8581 3049 8571 3041 8613 3043 8617
      3045 8617 3045 8619 3047 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 248DEG 28KT 3045 8612

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

FLZ013-014-016-017-026-027-127-140315-
CALHOUN FL-LEON FL-INLAND GULF FL-LIBERTY FL-COASTAL WAKULLA
FL-GADSDEN FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-
1012 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN...
GADSDEN...GULF...LEON...LIBERTY AND WAKULLA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT/1015 PM CDT/

AT 1006 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 32 MILES NORTH OF APALACHICOLA...OR NEAR RED HILL...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LIBERTY...NORTHEASTERN GULF...SOUTHERN CALHOUN...SOUTHERN
GADSDEN...SOUTHWESTERN LEON AND WESTERN WAKULLA COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3049 8466 3003 8446 3004 8509 3024 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 264DEG 34KT 3019 8506

17-GOULD