Tornado Watch 649

Issued

Jul 16, 2011, 4:57 PM CDT (21:57 UTC)

Expired

Jul 17, 2011, 12:00 AM CDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

3 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

40%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

20%

Ten or more severe wind reports

70%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

50%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1633Jul 16, 3:53 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1636Jul 16, 9:25 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1637Jul 16, 11:37 PM CDT

386 
WWUS20 KWNS 162156
SEL9
SPC WW 162156
MNZ000-NDZ000-170500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
       CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GARRISON NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT LOW LCL LEVELS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART

Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2011Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.