Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 282

May 11, 201139 counties in Iowa; 30 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 11, 2011, 2:53 PM CDT for 39 counties in Iowa; 30 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2011, 2:53 PM CDT (19:53 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2011, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 69 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Howard County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 2:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMills, Pottawattamie49 min
May 11, 2:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHamilton, York32 min
May 11, 3:03 PM CDTTornado WarningGIDHamilton, Merrick, Nance, Polk27 min
May 11, 3:14 PM CDTTornado WarningGIDPolk12 min
May 11, 3:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXPlatte42 min
May 11, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHamilton, Merrick, Nance, Polk40 min
May 11, 3:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXBurt, Butler, Colfax, Cuming, Dodge, Douglas and 4 more49 min
May 11, 3:28 PM CDTTornado WarningGIDMerrick, Nance15 min
May 11, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXAntelope, Boone, Madison, Platte, Stanton38 min
May 11, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXBurt, Colfax, Cuming, Dodge, Stanton, Thurston and 1 more49 min
May 11, 3:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMonona48 min
May 11, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdams, Taylor44 min
May 11, 4:11 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXAdams, Taylor49 min
May 11, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXAntelope, Madison, Pierce, Stanton, Wayne32 min
May 11, 4:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXBurt, Cuming, Stanton, Thurston, Wayne29 min
May 11, 4:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOAXMontgomery, Page67 min
May 11, 4:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXAdams, Taylor6 hr
May 11, 4:50 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXAdams, Union40 min
May 11, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdams, Taylor38 min
May 11, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdams, Ringgold, Taylor, Union43 min
May 11, 5:42 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXUnion33 min
May 11, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Decatur, Lucas, Madison, Ringgold, Warren46 min
May 11, 6:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXUnion6 hr
May 11, 6:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Clarke, Madison, Union54 min
May 11, 6:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDallas, Madison, Polk, Warren53 min
May 11, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Decatur, Lucas, Warren48 min
May 11, 6:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXWayne44 min
May 11, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXLucas, Marion, Monroe25 min
May 11, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose29 min
May 11, 8:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXLucas, Marion, Monroe, Wayne48 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 30 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 909 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 55 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
909 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1123 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

638 
WWUS20 KWNS 111955
SEL2  
SPC WW 111955
IAZ000-NEZ000-120000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHWEST IOWA
       EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 155 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF DENISON IOWA
TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 278...WW 279...WW
280...WW 281...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
ACROSS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
SPEED SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
TO ROBUST ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR
THIS SHORTCOMING AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL
TO UNFOLD AS STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD
POOL ENCOUNTER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN NEB AND SWRN IA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.


...CARBIN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 8:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Howard, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth90 min
May 11, 8:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 32 more66 min
May 11, 1:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clayton, Clinton and 17 more6 hr
May 11, 2:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Crawford and 13 more59 min
May 11, 3:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Cedar and 26 more2 hr
May 11, 5:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 6 more57 min
May 11, 6:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Jasper, Lucas and 9 more28 min
May 11, 12:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Buffalo, Butler, Cass, Clay, Colfax and 37 more5 hr
May 11, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNemaha, Pawnee, Richardson48 min
May 11, 4:52 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDundy, Furnas, Harlan, Hitchcock, Red Willow6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2011Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.