Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 31, 2011, 1:56 PM EDT for 36 counties in Michigan; 13 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2011, 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2011, 9:53 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 49 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alger County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Iron County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Winnebago County, WI
The radar
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Baraga, Houghton, Iron, Marquette | 45 min |
| May 31, 3:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Marquette | 43 min |
| May 31, 4:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Alger, Delta, Marquette | 48 min |
| May 31, 5:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Alger | 52 min |
| May 31, 5:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Crawford, Kalkaska, Otsego | 65 min |
| May 31, 5:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Manistee and 1 more | 66 min |
| May 31, 6:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena, Cheboygan, Crawford, Montmorency, Otsego, Presque Isle | 55 min |
| May 31, 6:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Emmet, Kalkaska, Otsego | 57 min |
| May 31, 6:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Gladwin | 43 min |
| May 31, 7:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena, Presque Isle | 35 min |
| May 31, 7:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco | 46 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1066 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -256 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 958 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 197 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 1:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Baraga, Benzie, Charlevoix and 35 more | 3 hr |
| May 31, 1:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 10 more | 3 hr |
| May 31, 3:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun and 39 more | 7 hr |
| May 31, 7:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Allegan, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Barry and 62 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2011Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.