Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 97

February 8, 201110 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 8, 2011, 7:16 PM CST for 10 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 8, 2011, 7:16 PM CST (01:16 UTC)
Expired: Feb 8, 2011, 10:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 712 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 127 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 764 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 1453 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

313 
ACUS11 KWNS 090116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090116 
OKZ000-TXZ000-090415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 090116Z - 090415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 05-06Z.

ABOVE A SHALLOW STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
SATURATING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL IS SPREADING
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z.  AS MID-LEVEL LIFT SATURATES THE MIXED PHASE
LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES
WILL INTENSIFY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
HIGHER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
IN NARROW TONGUE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS MAY NOT IMPACT SNOW
RATES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT....BUT IT APPEARS HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35520240 36420078 36719960 36589829 36109807 35479822
            34749994 34070158 34300260 34790266 35520240

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 8, 10:45 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 12 more	3 hr
Feb 9, 2:33 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bryan, Choctaw	4 hr
Feb 9, 3:29 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Canadian, Cherokee, Cleveland, Coal and 36 more	6 hr
Feb 9, 10:03 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Choctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain, Pushmataha	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.