Mesoscale Discussion 94

Issued

Feb 8, 2011, 1:56 AM MST (08:56 UTC)

Expired

Feb 8, 2011, 8:00 AM MST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

551 
ACUS11 KWNS 080856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080856 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-081500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL
NEB...N-CENTRAL/NWRN AND WRN KS.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 080856Z - 081500Z

SNOW RATES FCST TO INCREASE TO 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WITHIN SWATH OF
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FCST TO UNDERGO NET SEWD SHIFT/GROWTH
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 15Z.

ACROSS MAINLY CO/WRN KS PORTION OF THIS SWATH...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALOFT...I.E. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL DCVA AND MID-UPPER
PV...IS FCST AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS UT/NWRN CO/SWRN
WY.  CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NWRN CO IN NEXT FEW
HOURS AS TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE
ALREADY EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF WRN/NRN CO TO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  AS THIS DEVELOPMENT ALOFT CONTINUES...SFC LOW AND
ATTACHED FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SWD FROM SERN CO ACROSS NWRN TX
PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE...ASCENT IN FORM OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALSO IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER NRN KS AND NEB/KS BORDER
REGION...ESPECIALLY AROUND 294K-297K THETA SURFACES WHICH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CORRESPOND WELL TO LOWER-MIDDLE AREAS OF
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.  LOWER PORTION OF THIS ASCENT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ NOW EVIDENT IN PROFILER DATA OVER SWRN
KS.  SOME OVERLAP OF THESE TWO MAIN UVV REGIMES IS EXPECTED OVER
NWRN KS...AND ACCORDINGLY...RUC/ETA-KF AND MANY SREF MEMBERS
STRONGLY AGREE ON RELATIVE PRECIP MAX OVER WRN/NWRN KS THIS MORNING.
 ALTHOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...WITH PW GENERALLY UNDER 1/3 INCH...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER
FORCING GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS FAVORABLE PRECIP
EFFICIENCY FOR OCNL 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES EVEN FOR SOMEWHAT LOW
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL.

..EDWARDS.. 02/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39320323 40000225 40400115 40169943 39589715 39149671
            38609704 38749863 38819975 38520028 38010102 37880257
            37800406 38390485 39320323

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.