Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 928
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2011, 1:11 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2011, 1:11 PM CDT (18:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2011, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 73 counties
Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Ford County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Marshall County, IL, McLean County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stark County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Huron County, OH, Logan County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Portage County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH
The radar
The Chicago radar (KLOT), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 518 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -69 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 941 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
290
ACUS11 KWNS 241811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241811
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-241945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL/IND/OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241811Z - 241945Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES REMAINS UNCLEAR
ATTM...WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 20Z AROUND 40
PERCENT.
INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS TCU/SMALL CB
HAVE DEEPENED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
E-CNTRL IOWA ACROSS NRN IL/IND/OH. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
ADAMANT THAT TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ROBUST HEATING WILL CONTINUE S OF THE FRONTAL AXIS...RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. EVEN
WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...20 TO 30 KT WLYS AT 3 TO 6 KM AGL SAMPLED
IN WINCHESTER IL AND SLATER IA PROFILERS WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. OVERALL SETUP SHOULD YIELD
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND REPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...
DMX...
LAT...LON 41259132 42419228 42699220 42709188 42339108 42069020
41418881 41218683 41278435 41518093 41258086 40858121
40678170 40428262 40228459 40308807 40829043 41259132SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 1:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 24, 4:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin and 5 more | 65 min |
| May 23, 7:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Holmes and 9 more | 83 min |
| May 23, 7:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton and 24 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.