Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 784
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2011, 1:02 PM EDT for 29 counties in North Carolina; Dillon County, Marion County, South Carolina; City of Chesapeake, Virginia. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2011, 1:02 PM EDT (17:02 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2011, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Dillon County, SC, Marion County, SC, City of Chesapeake, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 618 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 824 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
967
ACUS11 KWNS 141702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141702
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-141900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN SC...ERN NC INTO EXTREME SERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141702Z - 141900Z
MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO
SERN VA. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO
SERN VA. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WV AND RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...AND FURTHER DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY ERODE THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. MODEST 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW EXISTS
OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
..DIAL.. 05/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34737952 35747796 36487717 36737634 36557600 35737589
35137632 34187840 33847964 34737952SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 9:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Cabarrus, Chatham, Davidson, Davie and 14 more | 30 min |
| May 14, 1:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 35 more | 8 hr |
| May 14, 4:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Chowan, Columbus, Craven and 31 more | 84 min |
| May 14, 7:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Chowan and 37 more | 58 min |
| May 14, 4:30 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Abbeville, Aiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun and 10 more | 30 min |
| May 14, 4:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley and 10 more | 4 hr |
| May 14, 6:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston and 7 more | 61 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.