Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 709

May 10, 20117 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2011, 11:21 AM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2011, 11:21 AM EDT (15:21 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2011, 1:15 PM EDT
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 128 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Clark County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH, Carter County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Buchanan County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Cabell County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 194 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-487 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1473 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
252 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

653 
ACUS11 KWNS 101522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101521
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH...ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN VA...NERN
TN AND EXTREME NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101521Z - 101715Z

SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A PORTION
OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 17Z. SUPERCELLS AND
STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SC NWWD THROUGH ERN
KY...EXTREME SWRN OH INTO CNTRL IND. WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF EML PLUME
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS SURFACE
LAYER DESTABILIZES...MAINLY ALONG ERN FRINGE OF CAPPING EML PLUME IN
VICINITY OF NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
WEAK/SMALL...BUT VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   40218395 38868225 36368104 35568214 37208396 38918632
            40108565 40218395

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 1:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clark, Clay and 51 more7 hr
May 10, 3:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Benton, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb and 19 more4 hr
May 10, 4:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Blackford, Delaware, Grant, Huntington, Jay and 4 more88 min
May 10, 7:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Fleming and 17 more28 min
May 10, 7:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Floyd and 10 more5 hr
May 10, 2:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Bladen and 35 more87 min
May 10, 3:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Bladen and 42 more8 hr
May 10, 6:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Bladen and 46 more58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.