Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 467

April 19, 201127 counties in Illinois; 46 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 19, 2011, 2:53 AM CDT for 27 counties in Illinois; 46 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 19, 2011, 2:53 AM CDT (07:53 UTC)
Expired
Apr 19, 2011, 4:00 AM CDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 73 counties

Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Pike County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Clark County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Pike County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-04-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-04-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -36 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
641 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

476 
ACUS11 KWNS 190753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190753 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-190900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 190753Z - 190900Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING
FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.  CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /ROUGHLY DELINEATED BY
+8-10C AT 700 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN LIMIT
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12-13Z...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
PRIMARILY INCREASING NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND EAST OF
KANSAS CITY/ST. JOSEPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.  A FAIRLY
DEEP AND COLD SURFACE BASED LAYER MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE
RISK OF HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER
SHEAR...COULD YIELD FAIRLY LARGE HAIL SIZES.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS ...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 04/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40149452 40729240 40249081 39858895 38498804 38139039
            37959123 38159293 39489419 40149452

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 18, 11:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Jersey94 min
Apr 19, 3:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 30 more7 hr
Apr 19, 5:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 34 more83 min
Apr 19, 8:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 8 more61 min
Apr 19, 12:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJersey, Madison, Monroe, Saint Clair95 min
Apr 19, 1:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 36 more10 hr
Apr 19, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 25 more88 min
Apr 19, 6:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Jackson, Johnson, Pulaski, Saline and 2 more66 min
Apr 19, 6:46 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more9 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.