Mesoscale Discussion 424

Issued

Apr 14, 2011, 12:34 PM CDT (17:34 UTC)

Expired

Apr 14, 2011, 2:30 PM CDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Wichita radar (KICT), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 134Apr 14, 2:15 PM CDT

308 
ACUS11 KWNS 141735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141734
KSZ000-141930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-SERN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141734Z - 141930Z

ARC OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN CURVING/NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AFTER ABOUT 18Z...CELLS GENERALLY MOVING
NNWWD TO NEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO BUILD SEWD ALONG
ARC...AFFECTING MORE OF CENTRAL/SERN KS WITH TIME THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER SWRN KS BETWEEN P28-DDC...FCST
TO CONTINUE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD GBD/RSL AREA.  SFC WARM FRONT
INITIALLY DRAWN NEWD ACROSS RICE COUNTY AND EWD NEAR EMP WILL LIFT
NWD AND NWWD TOWARD I-70.  WRN WARM FRONT SEGMENT WILL MERGE WITH
COMBINED INVERTED TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD FROM
LOW ACROSS BARTON/JEWELL COUNTIES.  BOTH WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING MLCINH.  VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES CU
FIELD THICKENING VERTICALLY AND HORIZONTALLY ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN
ICT AND SFC LOW...AND TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THAT.  EXPECT SFC DEW
POINTS COMMONLY LOW-MID 50S F...REACHING UPPER 50S NEAR OK
BORDER...CONTERMINOUS WITH STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING THAT WILL
STEEPEN 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES.  MEANWHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID-UPPER LOW OVER SERN CO...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION RELATED TO DCVA AND
AGEOSTROPHICALLY-FORCED JET-LEVEL ASCENT.  RESULT SHOULD BE CORRIDOR
OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ERN KS/OK
BORDER...TO 250-500 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY TO SFC LOW.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/LIFT/SRH/SHEAR NEAR LOW AND COMBINED
FRONTAL ZONES MAY AID LOCALIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT.

MEANWHILE...CELLS FORMING OR MOVING N OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL
TRANSLATE ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT STILL CAN PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/LIFT ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37239736 37609794 37819851 37849904 38489924 39919857
            39339727 38599645 37759610 37059614 37239736

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.