Mesoscale Discussion 36

Issued

Jan 19, 2011, 2:12 PM CST (20:12 UTC)

Expired

Jan 19, 2011, 7:15 PM CST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

880 
ACUS11 KWNS 192013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192012
MOZ000-KSZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 192012Z - 200115Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA BY 00Z.

STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS LLJ...ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR INVOF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING AIDED BY
850-MB DEFORMATION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
BANDING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...WHERE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE SNOW BANDS.

..COHEN/GARNER.. 01/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38749560 39359595 39669585 39989527 39879380 39389287
            38579293 38319361 38359419 38449504 38749560

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.