Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 249

March 22, 20115 counties in Michigan; 10 counties in Minnesota; 38 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2011, 4:49 PM EDT for 5 counties in Michigan; 10 counties in Minnesota; 38 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 22, 2011, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired: Mar 22, 2011, 9:45 PM EDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 53 counties

Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Iron County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Aitkin County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Brown County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Door County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 507 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 288 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

168 
ACUS11 KWNS 222050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-230145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AND NERN MN/CNTRL AND NRN
WI/WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 222049Z - 230145Z

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AND NERN
MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
NERN/E-CNTRL MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI...WHILE FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI.

PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD NEWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INVOF A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED E-SEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP FOCUS A
NEWD-MOVING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AFTER 23Z.

SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES ENE OF STC TO 15 MILES NNE OF
MTW...FREEZING RAIN /WITH RATES OF 0.05 IN PER HOUR/ AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB FROM 1 TO 3 C. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE AFTER
01Z...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW GIVEN SATURATED
ASCENT THROUGH THE 50-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CENTERED JUST
BELOW THE 500-MB LEVEL. RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE 15Z RUN OF THE SREF...WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED AROUND ANY LIGHTNING-PRODUCING ELEVATED
CONVECTION /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 100 J PER KG ACCORDING TO THE RUC
MODEL ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN WI AND E-CNTRL MN/. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

..COHEN.. 03/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46989491 47559455 47689368 47259133 46838941 46008694
            45118671 44088725 43848828 44609104 45319310 46419463
            46989491

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 21, 11:05 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Martin, Murray, Nobles and 2 more	115 min
Mar 22, 11:39 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beltrami, Clearwater, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	6 hr
Mar 22, 3:25 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Stone, Douglas, Grant, Lac qui Parle, Otter Tail, Pope and 5 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.