Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 2115
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 4, 2011, 3:07 AM EDT for 14 counties in New York. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 4, 2011, 3:07 AM EDT (07:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 4, 2011, 4:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 889 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -92 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1459 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
284
ACUS11 KWNS 040707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040707
NYZ000-040830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040707Z - 040830Z
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THEY CONTINUE
INTO WRN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
LINE OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN LAKE ERIE AND IS
MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY
BEFORE 08Z WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 6-6.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE A
STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST
/25-30 KT/ SHEAR...BUT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER MAY STRENGTHEN
DURING THE MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE
ALONG EWD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
..DIAL.. 09/04/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42697912 43447756 43217656 42477657 42107710 42097838
42187942 42697912SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 3:26 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 16 more | 4 hr |
| Sep 4, 6:22 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, Onondaga, Ontario and 4 more | 83 min |
| Sep 4, 1:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Fulton and 13 more | 87 min |
| Sep 4, 2:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton and 30 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 4, 6:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton and 30 more | 54 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.