Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2106

September 3, 20115 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 3, 2011, 10:45 AM EDT for 5 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 3, 2011, 10:45 AM EDT (14:45 UTC)
Expired: Sep 3, 2011, 11:45 AM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Huron County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Tuscola County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1828 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -88 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1004 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

123 
ACUS11 KWNS 031446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031445
MIZ000-031545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 827...

VALID 031445Z - 031545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 827
CONTINUES.

A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS NERN PORTION OF
WW 827.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING FROM W-E ACROSS
WATCH AREA.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND TO SMALL BOWING MCS THAT WAS LOCATED OVER GLADWIN...MIDLAND
AND GRATIOT COUNTIES AS OF 1430Z.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z DETROIT
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS S OF MCS SUGGESTS
THAT SYSTEM IS STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER
CAPPING WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS ALONG A MBS-BAX LINE...WHILE ELSEWHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED GUST
FRONT TO THE EAST.

..MEAD.. 09/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

LAT...LON   44048413 44218344 44078261 43538236 43258292 43228365
            43398402 43628409 44048413

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 3, 6:53 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clinton, Genesee, Gratiot, Ionia, Isabella, Kent and 5 more	97 min
Sep 3, 7:22 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Bay, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 19 more	5 hr
Sep 3, 1:24 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo, Saint Joseph, Van Buren	66 min
Sep 3, 4:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Genesee and 17 more	7 hr
Sep 3, 6:02 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Genesee and 16 more	58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.