Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 183

March 4, 2011Benton County, Arkansas; 21 counties in Missouri; Ottawa County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 4, 2011, 11:52 AM CST for Benton County, Arkansas; 21 counties in Missouri; Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 4, 2011, 11:52 AM CST (17:52 UTC)
Expired: Mar 4, 2011, 2:15 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 23 counties

Benton County, AR, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Webster County, MO, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36Mar 4, 1:35 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -209 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1021 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 313 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 299 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

119 
ACUS11 KWNS 041752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 041752Z - 042015Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BY 20-21Z.

A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AS AN
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY BASED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...TO THE NORTH OF
FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO...INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.  CAPE ABOVE A DEEPENING
SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IN
GENERAL...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW.

HOWEVER...A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS
EARLY AS 20-21Z...PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND SPRINGFIELD NORTHWARD
INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30
KTS...BENEATH 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL.

..KERR.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   37349474 38509374 38559291 38269248 37339250 36589313
            36379351 36259440 36519489 36979484 37349474

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 4, 3:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 27 more	95 min
Mar 4, 1:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Audrain, Barry, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Christian and 42 more	5 hr
Mar 4, 3:22 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade, Lincoln, Maries and 9 more	83 min
Mar 4, 4:54 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Crawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Lincoln, Madison and 9 more	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.