Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 1639
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 17, 2011, 10:24 AM CDT for 11 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2011, 10:24 AM CDT (15:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2011, 11:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties
Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Wells County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4227 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -184 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1037 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 156 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 276 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 37.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
816
ACUS11 KWNS 171524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171524
MNZ000-NDZ000-171630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NW MN
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 171524Z - 171630Z
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... AND
MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR
TO BE INCREASING...EITHER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
..KERR.. 07/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48259981 48259722 47699532 47189467 46529467 46169523
46139617 46739728 47500030 47950040 48259981SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 9:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods and 7 more | 95 min |
| Jul 16, 11:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 9 more | 23 min |
| Jul 17, 9:15 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Mahnomen, Marshall and 4 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 9:58 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 17, 12:49 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 1:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Cass, Clay and 18 more | 93 min |
| Jul 17, 3:37 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Becker, Clay, Grant, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin | 6 hr |
| Jul 17, 4:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 19 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 17, 6:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Traverse | 56 min |
| Jul 17, 11:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benson, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Nelson, Ramsey | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.