Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1639

July 17, 201111 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 17, 2011, 10:24 AM CDT for 11 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2011, 10:24 AM CDT (15:24 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2011, 11:30 AM CDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2011-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4227 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2011-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4227 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-184 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1037 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
276 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
37.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

816 
ACUS11 KWNS 171524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171524 
MNZ000-NDZ000-171630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NW MN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 171524Z - 171630Z

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... AND
MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR
TO BE INCREASING...EITHER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

..KERR.. 07/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48259981 48259722 47699532 47189467 46529467 46169523
            46139617 46739728 47500030 47950040 48259981

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 9:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods and 7 more95 min
Jul 16, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 9 more23 min
Jul 17, 9:15 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Mahnomen, Marshall and 4 more2 hr
Jul 17, 9:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 8 more7 hr
Jul 17, 12:49 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 3 more3 hr
Jul 17, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Cass, Clay and 18 more93 min
Jul 17, 3:37 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBecker, Clay, Grant, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin6 hr
Jul 17, 4:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 19 more7 hr
Jul 17, 6:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Traverse56 min
Jul 17, 11:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenson, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Nelson, Ramsey89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.