Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 652

July 17, 20116 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 17, 2011, 3:37 PM CDT for 6 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2011, 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2011, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt

Counties Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 3:58 PM CDTTornado WarningBISKidder, Stutsman32 min
Jul 17, 4:12 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBarnes, Cass63 min
Jul 17, 4:29 PM CDTTornado WarningBISStutsman46 min
Jul 17, 4:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningBISStutsman3 hr
Jul 17, 5:13 PM CDTTornado WarningBISLaMoure, Stutsman47 min
Jul 17, 5:13 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCass45 min
Jul 17, 6:02 PM CDTTornado WarningBISLaMoure43 min
Jul 17, 6:28 PM CDTTornado WarningBISDickey62 min
Jul 17, 6:45 PM CDTTornado WarningBISLaMoure30 min
Jul 17, 7:11 PM CDTTornado WarningBISDickey34 min
Jul 17, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRansom, Richland, Sargent60 min
Jul 17, 7:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISDickey59 min
Jul 17, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant, Otter Tail, Wilkin59 min
Jul 17, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant, Otter Tail, Wilkin61 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2011-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5718 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2011-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 39 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5718 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1259 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

886 
WWUS20 KWNS 172038
SEL2
SPC WW 172038
MNZ000-NDZ000-180300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
       SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT
LAKES MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 651. WATCH NUMBER 651 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
340 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS TO THE IMMEDIATE SW OF GFK...WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING W OF JMS NEAR THE MERGER OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
MLCAPE NEAR 6000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 60 KT...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 9:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods and 7 more95 min
Jul 16, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 9 more23 min
Jul 17, 9:15 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Mahnomen, Marshall and 4 more2 hr
Jul 17, 9:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 8 more7 hr
Jul 17, 10:24 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 5 more66 min
Jul 17, 12:49 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 3 more3 hr
Jul 17, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Cass, Clay and 18 more93 min
Jul 17, 4:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 19 more7 hr
Jul 17, 6:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Traverse56 min
Jul 17, 11:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenson, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Nelson, Ramsey89 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2011Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.