Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2011
Tornado Watch 652
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 17, 2011, 3:37 PM CDT for 6 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2011, 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2011, 10:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 3 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
Counties Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Traill County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 80%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 70%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 3:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | Kidder, Stutsman | 32 min |
| Jul 17, 4:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass | 63 min |
| Jul 17, 4:29 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | Stutsman | 46 min |
| Jul 17, 4:44 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | BIS | Stutsman | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 5:13 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | LaMoure, Stutsman | 47 min |
| Jul 17, 5:13 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cass | 45 min |
| Jul 17, 6:02 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | LaMoure | 43 min |
| Jul 17, 6:28 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | Dickey | 62 min |
| Jul 17, 6:45 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | LaMoure | 30 min |
| Jul 17, 7:11 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | Dickey | 34 min |
| Jul 17, 7:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Ransom, Richland, Sargent | 60 min |
| Jul 17, 7:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Dickey | 59 min |
| Jul 17, 8:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 59 min |
| Jul 17, 9:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 61 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5718 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1259 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
886
WWUS20 KWNS 172038
SEL2
SPC WW 172038
MNZ000-NDZ000-180300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT
LAKES MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 651. WATCH NUMBER 651 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
340 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS TO THE IMMEDIATE SW OF GFK...WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING W OF JMS NEAR THE MERGER OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
MLCAPE NEAR 6000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 60 KT...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...THOMPSONSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 9:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods and 7 more | 95 min |
| Jul 16, 11:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 9 more | 23 min |
| Jul 17, 9:15 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Mahnomen, Marshall and 4 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 9:58 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 17, 10:24 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 5 more | 66 min |
| Jul 17, 12:49 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 1:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Cass, Clay and 18 more | 93 min |
| Jul 17, 4:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 19 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 17, 6:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Traverse | 56 min |
| Jul 17, 11:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benson, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Nelson, Ramsey | 89 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2011Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.