Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 1413
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 27, 2011, 12:58 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 27, 2011, 12:58 AM CDT (05:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 27, 2011, 2:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 113 counties
Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Clay County, IN, Parke County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Miami County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Henry County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Saline County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 278 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 15 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -398 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1115 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
202
ACUS11 KWNS 270559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270558
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-270730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 270558Z - 270730Z
A NEW WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SEVERE WATCHES 561 AND 564
MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME FOR AFFECTED ILLINOIS PORTIONS.
SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT INGESTS AIR FROM A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SIMILAR TRENDS MAY TAKE PLACE SHORTLY WITH THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROPAGATING
TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS AREA...AT LEAST FOR AREAS OF ILLINOIS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS.
IT MAY BE THAT NEW/STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA
BECOMES ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW
AND 07-09Z. ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40-60+ KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. AND...AS A SURFACE COLD POOL CONGEALS AND
STRENGTHENS...SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE INFLOW EMANATING FROM A
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEAR/EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA.
..KERR.. 06/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
TOP...
LAT...LON 39189599 39929504 39579324 39379250 39829187 40389147
40979089 40309002 40078931 40408838 40238770 39548689
38008819 37629109 38109267 38279432 38309514 38789590
39189599SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 7:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign and 35 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 26, 10:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Mercer, Rock Island, Warren | 5 hr |
| Jun 27, 1:32 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign and 43 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 27, 3:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Bond, Champaign, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 39 more | 91 min |
| Jun 27, 5:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign and 35 more | 97 min |
| Jun 27, 11:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Massac, Pope | 90 min |
| Jun 27, 12:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Perry, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick | 4 hr |
| Jun 26, 9:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie | 65 min |
| Jun 26, 10:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Audrain, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell and 29 more | 84 min |
| Jun 27, 3:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Dade and 21 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.