Mesoscale Discussion 1213

Issued

Jun 13, 2011, 9:23 PM CDT (02:23 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2011, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

837 
ACUS11 KWNS 140223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140223 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN
MO/WESTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 140223Z - 140400Z

MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...POTENTIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS AND
MORE SO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IL. WITH RISKS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...A WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

IR SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY REFLECT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING ON THE EDGE OF AN ABATING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND STRONG
PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AS PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS. IN SPITE OF
2-4 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER AS NOTED BETWEEN
20Z-00Z OBSERVED TOPEKA RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NOW APPEAR LOW.
MORE SO...SIMILAR TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A
NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY /ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
DATA/...AS IT IMPINGES ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG
SOURCE REGION BUOYANCY/SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WINDS PROVIDED COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ONGOING/INCREASING STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO/WEST-CENTRAL IL AS OF 0215Z...BUT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN MO AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS
LATER THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39219528 41049598 41959515 41919243 40938986 39439022
            39809193 39799356 39219528

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.