Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 1015
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2011, 1:02 PM EDT for 29 counties in New York; Addison County, Vermont. It was in force for 58 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2011, 1:02 PM EDT (17:02 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2011, 2:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Erie County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Addison County, VT
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 828 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 176 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 208 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
376
ACUS11 KWNS 291702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291702
VTZ000-NYZ000-291800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291702Z - 291800Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN NY
ENEWD INTO ERN NY AND VT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
AND CNTRL NY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS
STORMS INITIATE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE AS A WELL-DEFINED JET NEAR 700 MB MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43707663 43217834 42787899 42427919 42127885 42067808
42237690 42687459 43177314 44107312 43957515 43707663SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 6:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 25 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.