Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 10

January 9, 201115 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2011, 1:28 AM CST for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 9, 2011, 1:28 AM CST (07:28 UTC)
Expired: Jan 9, 2011, 3:30 AM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Aransas County, TX, Bee County, TX, Brooks County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Duval County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Zapata County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4Jan 9, 2:10 AM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 719 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 285 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 475 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

855 
ACUS11 KWNS 090728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090728 
TXZ000-090930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 090728Z - 090930Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS DEEP S TX. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
WATCH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LRD TO
CRP. TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN
THE 50S F WHICH IS STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TO THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE MID 60S F...WHICH RESULTS IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG USING MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS IT CONTINUES EWD. A DEEPENING LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AREAS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS...INDICATIVE OF LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE PRIMARY LINE
OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THIS ZONE OF LIFT...IT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY FEEDING FROM THE
SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING. SURFACE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL
BE GREATEST RIGHT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS LESS DENSE AND MORE UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN N OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND MAY
BE SHALLOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE CRP AREA.

..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28589886 28809729 28739652 28419620 28059653 27599702
            27289719 27129725 27019788 26919873 26929941 27229954
            27629925 28109907 28589886

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 9, 2:11 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aransas, Calhoun, Duval, Jim Wells, Kleberg, Nueces and 2 more	4 hr
Jan 9, 7:09 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Cass	5 hr
Jan 9, 10:55 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin and 12 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.