Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP THIS
SHORT. MAIN AREA OF LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY AROUND SUNRISE. PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...SO SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY EAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
EASTERN BORDER BY SUNRISE...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY HIGH POPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

DRY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM...
WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING
WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW OVER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 72  37  58  33  63 /  30   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 73  36  60  31  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 75  36  60  30  64 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
849 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-090300-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
849 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND ADVANCES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...ALONG WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO JUNCTION. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
248 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

TXZ071-072-076>078-080945-
CROCKETT TX-IRION TX-SCHLEICHER TX-SUTTON TX-TOM GREEN TX-
248 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CST FOR
CROCKETT...IRION...WESTERN CHLEICHER...NORTHWESTERN SUTTON AND
SOUTHERN TOM GREEN COUNTIES...

AT 245 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4
MILES NORTH OF MERTZON TO MERTZON TO 19 MILES WEST OF OZONOA...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  US-67 NEAR THE IRION-TOM GREEN COUNTY LINE BY 255 AM CST
  TANKERSLEY...OZONA...AND KNICKERBOCKER BY 300 AM CST
  CHRISTOVAL BY 315 AM CST
  I-10 NEAR THE CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE BY 325 AM CST

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD
A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3124 10092 3136 10090 3136 10012 3122 10014
      3056 10085 3055 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 269DEG 39KT 3132 10081 3124 10080
          3062 10148

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

TXZ098-099-113-114-127-128-080945-
HASKELL TX-JONES TX-SHACKELFORD TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
CALLAHAN TX-
259 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CST FOR
HASKELL...JONES...SHACKELFORD...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON AND CALLAHAN
COUNTIES...

AT 253 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
17 MILES NORTHWEST OF HASKELL TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASKELL TO 18
MILES EAST OF SWEETWATER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEINERT AND STITH BY 305 AM CST
  US-277 NEAR THE HASKELL-KNOX COUNTY LINE...TYE...LAKE STAMFORD NEAR
  LAKE STAMFORD MARINA AND HODGES BY 310 AM CST
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-180 AND FARM ROAD 600...IRBY AND HAWLEY BY
  315 AM CST
  IMPACT BY 320 AM CST

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3312 9903 3245 9936 3243 10015 3251 10015
      3310 9987 3340 9990 3340 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 268DEG 39KT 3339 9979 3311 9976
          3251 10004

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

TXZ099-114-081015-
SHACKELFORD TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
349 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 AM CST FOR
SHACKELFORD AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES...

AT 346 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
15 MILES NORTH OF THROCKMORTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THROCKMORTON
TO 13 MILES WEST OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-183 AND US-283 AND FORT GRIFFIN BY 355 AM
  CST
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-283 AND RANCH ROAD 209 AND ALBANY BY 400 AM
  CST
  US-380 NEAR THE THROCKMORTON-YOUNG COUNTY LINE AND ELBERT BY 405 AM
  CST
  WOODSON BY 410 AM CST
  US-180 NEAR THE SHACKELFORD-STEPHENS COUNTY LINE...IBEX AND US-183
  NEAR THE THROCKMORTON-STEPHENS COUNTY LINE BY 415 AM CST

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3339 9895 3296 9895 3295 9909 3267 9909
      3255 9961 3263 9961 3310 9931 3340 9926
      3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 255DEG 42KT 3341 9916 3313 9920
          3269 9948

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