Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR A KSJT TO KMWL LINE. VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CU IS SLOWLY ENHANCING ALONG THIS LINE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SOME MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CAPPING ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS INHIBITING STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PROBABLY
AFTER 21 OR 22Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN
STORM MODE WILL BE MULTI CELLS GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A ABILENE TO STERLING CITY LINE. LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT BENEFICIAL SHORT-TERM RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 1.5
INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWFA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AND A WEAKER MID LEVEL CAP. STILL SLIGHTLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.

.LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
MOVED BACK TO THE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO LAY DOWN SOME
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

BEGINNING THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
595DAM AND CENTER ITSELF NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT...THE
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS...RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE...AND AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 71  96  74  98  75 /  40  10  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 74  99  73 101  74 /  40  20  20   0   0
JUNCTION 	 75  97  72  99  73 /  40  30  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-221945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM ABILENE TO STERLING CITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ABILENE             32.45N  99.78W
06/21/2011                   TAYLOR             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SATELLITE DISHES WERE DAMAGED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AT
            KEAN RADIO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1100220

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
429 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ139-140-212200-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
429 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE BROWNWOOD
NEAR THRIFTY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA ANNA...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR THRIFTY AND LAKE BROWNWOOD BY 440 PM CDT
  LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR BYRDS STORE...OWENS AND MAY BY 500 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.