Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL JET MAX
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...MID LEVEL WINDS
WERE INCREASING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE EXTENDED ALONG A VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO
SANDERSON LINE. THE 3KM HRRR INDICATES STORMS EXPLODING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...THEN
SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER 23Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DUE TO SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DCAPES OF
1000 TO 1500 KG. ALSO...REAL INTENSE ELEVATED CORES MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GOING WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DUE TO SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.

.LONG TERM...
POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
REMAINING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE
NEGATIVE FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IMPACTING THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS
COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE...VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
BE IN PLACE TO IMPEDE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WE COULD SEE
SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND AREAS. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE AREA RECEIVE
RAINFALL...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE AREA NEEDS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL TO MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT.

FOLLOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE AREA BRINGING HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RH VALUES LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ALSO...THERE ARE SEVERAL ON GOING WILDFIRES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...HEARTLAND...AND
CROCKETT COUNTY. ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR WILDFIRES.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 75  94  71  95  72 /  20  40  40  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 78 100  72  98  73 /  10  30  40  20  10
JUNCTION 	 78  97  74  96  73 /  10  20  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...HASKELL...JONES...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...TAYLOR...TOM GREEN.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...
FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...
SAN SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...TOM
GREEN.

&&

21/20

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>