Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
117 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAR HARRISON...PANOLA...RUSK AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES FROM TORNADO WATCH #223 AND ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
COUNTIES FROM TORNADO WATCH #222. REDEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM
ACROSS NE TX BUT THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING WHERE THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT AND
BEEFED POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY WHERE THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION INCLUDING NE TX/SW AR AND WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FCST MINS.

ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUT NORTHERN AREAS AS
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WILL ADDRESS LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE ROUTINE 4 AM PACKAGE.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  53  79  53  87 /  30  10   0   0   0
MLU  81  52  75  50  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
DEQ  70  43  76  46  83 /  50  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  49  77  52  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
ELD  75  47  77  48  84 /  50  10   0   0   0
TYR  75  52  78  54  83 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  51  78  52  85 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  53  82  51  86 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-271100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VIOLENT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VIOLENT AND POTENTIAL DEADLY
TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THIS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

LAZ017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-271100-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1238 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HUDSON                  31.33N 94.80W
04/27/2011                   ANGELINA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON MT. CARMEL ROAD OFF OF HWY 94
            WEST.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ZWOLLE                  31.64N 93.64W
04/27/2011                   SABINE             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN ZWOLLE.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1258 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               32.24N 92.71W
04/26/2011                   JACKSON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES ARE DOWNED THROUGHOUT THE PARISH.

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               32.24N 92.71W
04/27/2011                   JACKSON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED THROUGHOUT THE PARISH.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
103 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONROE                  32.51N 92.08W
04/27/2011  M81 MPH          OUACHITA           LA   ASOS

            AT THE MONROE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             NATCHITOCHES            31.76N 93.10W
04/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       NATCHITOCHES       LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS WERE MEASURED IN
            NATCHITOCHES.

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NATCHITOCHES            31.76N 93.10W
04/27/2011                   NATCHITOCHES       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWNED THROUGHOUT THE PARISH.

&&

15