Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEVELOPING EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...THIS LINE
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...DEVELOPING SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE LINE SPAWNING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE LINE
REMAINS STRONG...WITH WINDS OVER 40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL
HELP IN MAINTAINING THE LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUE TO HOLD A SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION AT 30 TO 45 KTS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PROPAGATION OF
THE LINE. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THERE REMAINS BETTER SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE...WITH 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTORS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND A COLD POOL STRENGTH ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 15 KTS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OZARKS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGH MID MORNING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BORDER WITH ARKANSAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY POSE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF 65 AS
ANY MID-MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OZARKS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FROM
SPRINGFIELD TO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AS OF LATE. THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MISSOURI. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS...HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD TO
LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE WAVE SHOULD DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES ARE PREDICTED TO
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

KURTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS
WILL BE FOCUSED ON A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ALSO
DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH WITH SOME
SEVERE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
222 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE THROUGH
THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PORTIONS OF THE LINE...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 IN PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
  MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

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