Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING AND PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
ONE STORM THAT DEVELOPED CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELDS
INDICANT THAT THIS STORM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND MAY JUST CLIP PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME THINK THE BETTER
POTENTIAL IS FOR THE STORM REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA AS IT TAKES ON A MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA ARE DEVELOPING INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS AND
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ARE IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. EXPECT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WHICH WILL
RESULT IN IT MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO
SUGGEST BETTER BALANCE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE MORE
EASTERLY. SO...EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS TO BEGIN TO START TO
PUSH MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN ITS CURRENT SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BEING AFFECTED WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI LINE.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND
IOWA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. THIS WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH.
THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE SCATTERED. 30
TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS TO WORK
WITH...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AND EXPECTED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
STANDARD AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUE TO BRING
THE MCS SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION BY 06Z ACTING TO STRENGTHEN THE MCS. THE
SPEED OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 30-40KTS
WOULD SUPPORT A QUICKLY MOVING MCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE MCS
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS
NEAR 1.50 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...WHICH HAD INCREASED
TO 2.12 INCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AS A SOMEWHAT TROPICAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE FEEDING
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FLOODING REMAINS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS PRIMED THE GROUND.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT BRIEFLY INTO THE OZARKS REGION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE. WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING LAID OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 90S DESPITE THE
RAIN AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS EARLY FRIDAY AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY.

HATCH

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED...PARTICULARLY AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH
OUR REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
INNER MOUNTAIN WEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE AREA BEING
AFFECTED BY A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE WESTERN RIDGE...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS QUITE LOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED
PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND GEFS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS
WILL BE FOCUSED ON A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ALSO
DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH WITH SOME
SEVERE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1153 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND
SEPARATES FARTHER FROM THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI ARE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES
BETTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 IN PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH
  MISSOURI LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N COLE CAMP           38.52N 93.20W
08/19/2011  E70 MPH          BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED BY AMBULANCE CREW. RELAYED TO COUNTY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MOZ066-067-190730-
ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. CLAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF SCHELL CITY...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RICH HILL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LOWRY CITY AND SCHELL CITY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE TRUMAN
LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3815 9368 3789 9373 3791 9434 3806 9431
      3805 9424 3804 9423 3806 9421 3805 9419
      3806 9413 3804 9411 3804 9407 3817 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 286DEG 35KT 3805 9423

GRIFFIN