Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PERCOLATE THIS EVENING ALONG WHAT APPEARS
TO BE THE COLD FRONT...MODIFIED BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DROPPING
SOUTH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
FORMED AS PARCELS ARE LIFTED OVER THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...LIKELY TO AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
EVENTUALLY...EXPECT TO SEE BOUNDARY LATER COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE BASED PARCEL STABILIZATION TO TAKE HOLD...WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THAT TIME THOUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WINDS TO 50-60 MPH.

BOXELL

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011/

A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER CNTRL MO/EAST CNTRL KS...AND HAS BECOME REINFORCED
BY RAIN COOLED AIR TO SOME EXTENT. THIS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE HOT/MUGGY AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN APPROACHING 100
DEG F AT KJLN AND ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ELSEWHERE. LIKE YESTERDAY
LOWER DEW POINTS ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM GETTING WAY
OUT OF HAND...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AT AIRPORT SITES AT 1
PM. CLOUD COVER AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOW HELPING TO SLOW THE
UPWARD DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 100
TO 105 DEG F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO WILL SHIFT E-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN MO MAY SERVED AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS SKIRTED THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED...MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD
PULSE STORMS ARE AGAIN UNDERWAY OVER THE MO OZARKS. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH RUC PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATING 3000 J/KG
MLCAPES AND WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR (20-25 DEG K THETA-E
DIFFERENTIAL SFC-700/500MB)...HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO THE BOOTHEAL
REGION BY 05/0000Z...SO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST NORTH-
EAST OF THE CWFA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER CNTRL MO TO COVER
THIS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE OF THE REGION...WE MAY GET A
BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TUE-TUE EVENING. BUT WITH MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...PROGGED HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH THE 100-105 DEG F TUE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED-WED NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS. AFTER THAT...SOME
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MAY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE SW AND SOUTHERN CWFA DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. IN LATER PERIODS...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

UNCERTAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS...AS TSRA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE EVENING STABILIZATION TAKES HOLD. AS
SUCH...HAVE ONLY INDICATED CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS EVENING
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF TSRA GETS CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA...WITH MVFR AND
PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR WITHIN TSRA.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORM BY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

BOXELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
737 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
737 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED TO ELEVATED EXTREME HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 50
MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE NICKLES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
SHORT LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...PRODUCING HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. MANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET.

HEAT INDICES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 TO 105
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 N ROBY                37.54N 92.14W
07/03/2011  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

BOXELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

MOZ089-090-094-040130-
GREENE MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
741 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASH GROVE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GREENFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASH GROVE...BOIS D'ARC...CAVE SPRINGS...
EVERTON...NORTHWESTERN SPRINGFIELD...SACVILLE...WALNUT GROVE AND
WILLARD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 73 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES...INCLUDING EVERTON...ASH GROVE...WILLARD
AND SPRINGFIELD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3723 9376 3741 9377 3742 9334 3742 9333
      3719 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 270DEG 15KT 3731 9363

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
801 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

MOZ094-102-103-040145-
BARRY MO-STONE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
801 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BARRY...NORTHWESTERN
STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERONA...OR 4 MILES EAST OF
MONETT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA...CRANE...ELSEY...FREISTATT...
HURLEY...JENKINS...MADRY...MCDOWELL...MONETT...PLEASANT RIDGE...
VERONA AND WHEELERVILLE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN BARRY...NORTHWESTERN STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES...INCLUDING VERONA AND AURORA...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3696 9346 3673 9355 3687 9398 3704 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 288DEG 12KT 3693 9384

LINDENBERG