Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PERCOLATE THIS EVENING ALONG WHAT APPEARS
TO BE THE COLD FRONT...MODIFIED BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DROPPING
SOUTH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
FORMED AS PARCELS ARE LIFTED OVER THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...LIKELY TO AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
EVENTUALLY...EXPECT TO SEE BOUNDARY LATER COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE BASED PARCEL STABILIZATION TO TAKE HOLD...WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THAT TIME THOUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WINDS TO 50-60 MPH.

BOXELL

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011/

A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER CNTRL MO/EAST CNTRL KS...AND HAS BECOME REINFORCED
BY RAIN COOLED AIR TO SOME EXTENT. THIS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE HOT/MUGGY AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN APPROACHING 100
DEG F AT KJLN AND ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ELSEWHERE. LIKE YESTERDAY
LOWER DEW POINTS ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM GETTING WAY
OUT OF HAND...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AT AIRPORT SITES AT 1
PM. CLOUD COVER AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOW HELPING TO SLOW THE
UPWARD DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 100
TO 105 DEG F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO WILL SHIFT E-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN MO MAY SERVED AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS SKIRTED THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED...MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD
PULSE STORMS ARE AGAIN UNDERWAY OVER THE MO OZARKS. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH RUC PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATING 3000 J/KG
MLCAPES AND WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR (20-25 DEG K THETA-E
DIFFERENTIAL SFC-700/500MB)...HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO THE BOOTHEAL
REGION BY 05/0000Z...SO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST NORTH-
EAST OF THE CWFA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER CNTRL MO TO COVER
THIS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE OF THE REGION...WE MAY GET A
BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TUE-TUE EVENING. BUT WITH MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...PROGGED HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH THE 100-105 DEG F TUE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED-WED NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS. AFTER THAT...SOME
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MAY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE SW AND SOUTHERN CWFA DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. IN LATER PERIODS...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

UNCERTAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS...AS TSRA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE EVENING STABILIZATION TAKES HOLD. AS
SUCH...HAVE ONLY INDICATED CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS EVENING
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF TSRA GETS CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA...WITH MVFR AND
PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR WITHIN TSRA.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORM BY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

BOXELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1259 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1259 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

LIMITED RISK FOR LIGHTNING.
LIMITED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
LIMITED RISK FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND.
ELEVATED RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT.

DISCUSSION...

A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 IN
MANY AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN POTENTIAL STORM THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 TO 105
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             6 ESE FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.67N 92.05W
07/03/2011  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JTK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

MOZ066-077-032315-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
548 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN
VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRONAUGH...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...MILO...
MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA AND SHELDON.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3788 9461 3785 9408 3785 9407 3758 9408
      3765 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 273DEG 14KT 3773 9457

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             2 E GARLAND             37.73N 94.59W
07/03/2011  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 N ROBY                37.54N 92.14W
07/03/2011  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

BOXELL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>