Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

QUICK MESOSCALE UPDATE REGARDING THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS LINE
CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH HAS SPREAD INTO THE OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI REGION WITH
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. BEHIND THIS LINE...IT APPEARS
CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEHIND
THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX NOSING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THIS SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS
SURFACE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE...AS MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF WINDS OVER 70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE STORMS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
TO REACH A HERMITAGE TO BOLIVAR TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON LINE BY
11:30 BASED ON RADAR INTERPRETATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

KURTZ

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
WEAK THETA E AXIS. HOWEVER...MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR
AREA...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LINE THAT HAS
SET UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVED OFF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THIS LINE OF ISOLATED CELLS HAS ALREADY SPAWNED BOTH SEVERE AND
TORNADO WARNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS. AS FOR US...AN EML HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NOON AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING DRY LINE OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AS
STRONG SURFACE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DEEP SWATHS OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BUILD UNDER THE CAP. GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH
LIMITED MLCIN. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST IT TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN A VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE SPC HAS
CONTINUED TO GO WITH A HIGH RISK...COVERING PORTIONS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI COUNTIES.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...WITH
THE LINE ADVANCING EAST OVER TIME.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR SUPERCELLS TO THREATEN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI IN THE EVENING
HOURS...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR AROUND 7PM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
COUNTIES AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5 TO 8.5 C /KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE MLCAPE VALUES
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG MID
LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING STORMS. THIS ALONG WITH THE
EVER INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK EVER SO
SLIGHTLY AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WHICH
WOULD ALTER STORM INFLOW INCREASING HELICITY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 45KTS. BOTH INCREASING HELICITY AND
0-1KM SHEAR WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...AND
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAINLY WEST
OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THE COLD POOL TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THESE STORMS CAUSING DISCRETE
CELLS TO MERGE INTO A POSSIBLE QLCS. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STORMS COULD FORM A STRONG MCS EXPECTING TO PROPAGATE
EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO
SEE LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
WILL LIKELY BE KICKED UP FROM THE EVENINGS STRONGEST STORMS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
UPDATED FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS TODAY.

UNFORTUNATELY...FOR WEDNESDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO TAKE A SLOW TRACK TO THE EAST. ONCE AGAIN THE DRY LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WITH TODAY...A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.5 C RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS. MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI ARE FORECASTED WELL OVER 2000
J/KG.  0-1KM SHEAR VALUES HEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS.  THE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MODERATE RISK OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR CONVECTIVE MODE...FORECAST IS
STILL A LITTLE HAZY...HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT DISCRETE
CELLS FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING...OF COURSE THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THROUGH MID-DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO
THE DRY LINE...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE COLD POOL RESULTING IN ANY
DISCRETE CELLS CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURE.

THEREFORE...HAVE COVERED MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PINPOINTING CONVECTION WOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT BESIDES SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BRINGS US A QUICK SHOT AT SOME PRECIP. AFTER THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL AMPLIFY DUE TO DIGGING
ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND...WITH
SOME ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

KURTZ

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...

ANOTHER TRICKY TAF FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
IMPACT ALL THREE SITES AT MULTIPLE TIMES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENTLY A SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THREE SITES NEAR
NOON AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS ALWAYS...ANY SITE THAT IS DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW IFR.
TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

KURTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1013 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TSTM WND GST     JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
05/24/2011  E60 MPH          JASPER             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALENA                  37.08N 94.64W
05/24/2011                   CHEROKEE           KS   STORM CHASER

            *** 1 INJ *** SUV WAS BLOWN OFF THE ROAD AT 7TH AND CHICO
            ROAD.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANBY                  36.92N 94.25W
05/24/2011                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMGE WAS REPORTED TO THE GRANBY PUBLICS WORKS
            BUILDING.

&&

WISE

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